External risk monitoring

How likely is a disruption to your payments, supplies or sales?

Together we’ll map the external risks facing your company. For each risk you choose to track, you’ll receive short briefings showing what happened, how the likelihood of the event has changed and which sources informed the assessment.

Build a risk map

ALTA banka · Risk of losing its licence

We pay our staff and suppliers from our account at ALTA.

Sapphire estimate

October 2715%
A lawyer asked Serbia’s central bank to investigate overseas transfers by an unnamed bank. There is no clear link to ALTA. 021.rs
October 2930%
A complaint to prosecutors names ALTA. The complainant said the bank was preparing to transfer €50 million abroad and that the currency exchange had been approved outside the usual procedure. He asked prosecutors to stop the transfer. N1 · 14:47

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How Sapphire tracks a risk

Risk map
With your team, we define the external dependency, adverse event and time horizon. For each scenario we record the business impact and what would confirm that the event has occurred.
Risk factors
We follow company statements, regulators and industry sources. We check which counterparty a report concerns and whether it changes the risk. Multiple accounts of one report count once.
Likelihood assessment
We weigh new facts against the previous estimate over the same horizon. Each issue shows both estimates, what prompted a revision and what evidence is still missing.

Which events belong on your map?

Include events that could cost your business money, interrupt operations or cut off a market. Select an event to see the potential damage and what to watch for.

A major customer becomes insolvent or goes bankrupt

Potential damage: You could lose both the money owed for completed orders and future sales to the same customer.
What to watch for: Overdue invoices, creditor claims, layoffs, asset sales and qualifications in the auditor’s report.

A critical supplier stops operating

Potential damage: Without a key component, your production line could stop. Contract deadlines and advances paid to the supplier are at risk.
What to watch for: Late shipments, creditor claims, labour disputes and operating restrictions at the plant you rely on.

A payment channel closes

Potential damage: Even with cash in the bank, you could be unable to collect from a customer or pay a supplier.
What to watch for: Changes to bank or payment network rules, the end of correspondent banking relationships, and restrictions on the countries or currencies you use.

Expected financing falls through

Potential damage: A funding shortfall could interrupt day-to-day payments, halt a project or leave you unable to refinance debt at maturity.
What to watch for: Financial trouble at the lender or investor, tighter lending policies and cuts to investment programmes.

Sanctions or export restrictions affect a transaction

Potential damage: A shipment or payment could be prohibited, cutting off a supplier or a sales market.
What to watch for: Proposed measures, official investigations and changes to sanctions lists or export rules. Check the goods, counterparties and countries involved in each transaction.

A regulator imposes a ban or a required permit lapses

Potential damage: You could lose the right to sell a product, operate a facility, import goods or serve customers.
What to watch for: Draft legislation, regulatory consultations, enforcement orders and deadlines for meeting new requirements.

A border, port or key transport route closes

Potential damage: Goods could be stranded in transit. A detour costs more, stocks run down and late deliveries may trigger penalties.
What to watch for: Strikes, border restrictions, carrier warnings, growing queues and military escalation along the route.

Loss of access to a key digital platform

Potential damage: You could lose a sales or advertising channel, an app store listing or an integration that depends on an API.
What to watch for: Changes to platform terms, country restrictions, new account requirements and notices that an API will be retired.

Raw materials, energy, foreign currency or borrowing become sharply more expensive

Potential damage: Signed contracts could become unprofitable. Purchases could tie up more working capital and debt payments could rise.
What to watch for: Supplier prices, central bank decisions, output and export restrictions, market prices and exchange rates.

A natural disaster, epidemic or major industrial accident

Potential damage: You could lose a facility, warehouse or stock. Even an undamaged site may be out of reach for staff and suppliers.
What to watch for: Weather and public health warnings, incident reports from nearby hazardous facilities and official access restrictions.

Armed conflict, civil unrest or expropriation

Potential damage: You could lose assets or control over them. Staff safety and the ability to continue operating in the country are at risk.
What to watch for: Escalating conflict, emergency measures, proposed laws allowing assets to be seized, and restrictions on movement and business activity.

A customer cancels a major project or cuts purchasing

Potential damage: You may already have hired people, bought equipment or borrowed against the order. Revenue can disappear while the costs remain.
What to watch for: Customer budget revisions, ownership or management changes, suspended tenders and changes in investment strategy.

A supplier’s product or component is found to be unsafe

Potential damage: A defective part could force you to recall finished goods, halt sales and pay compensation. Customer trust is also at risk.
What to watch for: Regulatory notices, test results, incident investigations and recalls of similar products. Check the parts and batches you use.

ALTA banka · Serbia

Risk of ALTA banka losing its licence

Our company has an account with ALTA banka a.d. Beograd. We use it to pay our employees, taxes and suppliers. Can the bank keep processing these payments as usual?

Each issue shows what we’ve learned about the bank and how it changes the likelihood of each of the three scenarios.

Issue 06 / 08 · Oct 29 2026

Complaint names ALTA in a possible €50m transfer

Srđan Milivojević said he had filed a complaint with prosecutors. He alleged that ALTA was preparing to transfer €50m to its own account at a foreign bank and asked for the transfer to be checked and stopped. Radar also reported a €12m ALTA loan secured against property whose purchase prosecutors were examining.

Why this assessment

A specific ALTA transaction could now face intervention. The complainant named the amount, questioned the approval process and asked prosecutors to stop the transfer. Sapphire therefore raised its estimate of the risk of licence revocation from 15% to 30%. As of today, it is unclear whether the transfer went through.

Estimated likelihood of licence revocation

15% → 30%

How the three scenario probabilities changed

Each mark on the axis is an issue date.

Three scenarios as of this issue

The bank operates as usual: 30%
The bank operates with restrictions: 40%
The regulator revokes the bank’s licence: 30%

Sources

N1 · 14:47 Radar · Loga plus

Read this issue in the PDF · RU

Full series in PDF · RU

How likely is a disruption to your payments, supplies or sales?

ALTA banka · Risk of losing its licence

How Sapphire tracks a risk

Risk map

Risk factors

Likelihood assessment